Selecting Second, Third and Fourth

Normally in system tests the second, third and fourth picks come from a number of top rated horses (the default number is 6 top rated runners in non-Expert Mode systems). In Expert Mode in Bet Selector Ultimate Professional however you can have separate rules for each of the second, third and fourth placings.

An example will help illustrate this. Your main system rules are used to pick horses to win but for the placings you might want to use the top 4 in the AAP early market for second,the top 6 in the AAP early market for third and the top 8 in the AAP early market for fourth. To implement this the final lines of your Expert Mode system would be as follows:

B.MPRANK<=4
C.MPRANK<=6
D.MPRANK<=8

Note that the B line picks horses for second, the C line picks horses for third and the D line picks horses for fourth. Just use the respective letter (in upper case) followed by a full stop followed by your rule. Note also that you do not have to use the same ranking in each rule as virtually anything can be used to select each of the second, third and fourth picks (when I say anything I mean any horse based rule as it would not make sense to use a meeting or race selection rule).

Something that might not be obvious is that if you leave out a line then all horses in the race are included for the position in question. Think of it like you do rules for the win where if no rules are present then all horses in the race are selected. Note that just because we use letters B, C and D to pick second, third and fourth this does not imply there is such a thing as letter A (there is not as Expert Mode as described in posts up until now is all about picking win selections anyway).

The other thing worth mentioning is that you can actually have more than one rule (line) for each placing. This means you can build quite complex rule setting for each placing if you really want to.

For readability and to ensure Expert Mode interprets your rules correctly please make sure the above mentioned rules come last in your Expert Mode system. And make sure the B ones come before the C ones and the C ones come before the D ones.

Predicted Place Prices


New in the more recent Pro versisons of Bet Selector is the ability to test predicted place prices in Expert Mode. There are two variables for this as follows:

PLCPREDSP - Predicted place price based on TAB prices
PLCPREDRP - Predicted place price based on rated prices

Note the above are not yet in the Expert Mode editor drop downs but can be typed in directly. For example if you want the predicted place price based on TAB prices to be less than $1.20 the rule would be:

PLCPREDSP<1.2

Note we do not have the final place divs to do value analysis but I am sure you will still find these variables useful. The above rule for example over metrops can even be used for win betting.

Some of you may recall my Place Odds Report from 20 years ago where we had a special calculation for determining true place odds (note they are not linearly related to win odds) and then used these for place and trifecta purposes. The above variables give you those predictions in terms of dividends. In theory a figure less than 1.20 should equate to an 80%+ place strike rate and a figure less than 1.1 should equate to a 90%+ place strike rate.  More background can be found in the original Place Odds Report which is available on request.