Bonus: Free Best Bet systems are available via the “Download Free Systems” button once you go into System Selector and click the Expert Mode check box but only in Pro ver 2.0. Both versions 1 and 2 of these systems are available and they are saved in separately created folders NEALES BEST BETS V1 and NEALES BEST BETS V2 (if these folders already exist then system files are just added/overwritten).
Most of the systems are based on the top rated main avBase class ratings (AVB1) and/or the top rated main time based ratings (PP1) although there is one based on the top rated avBase Better Ratings (AVB2). As you might expect, some horses will be picked by more than one system but this is a good thing as these duplicated picks are the best of the best and my recommendation is to bet them as many times as they are selected.
Please make sure you enter your new password into the program as only then will it appear as “Bet Selector Professional 2.0” in the title bar and give you access to new features including:
• You can now view new avBase class figures for races in Price Predictor and Extra Form
• You can now use new avBase class figures in Expert Mode system tests
• You can now view new class and time based ratings in Price Predictor and Extra Form
• You can now test new class and time based ratings in Expert Mode system tests
• You can now view new class and time based ratings in Race Day Live
IMPORTANT: The new class ratings are based on new avBase class figures for past races. These new class figures are saved when meeting are downloaded or updated but for old meetings you have to run a system test over at least the past 2 years or more to force them to update – it needs to be a system that picks at least one horse in every race at every meeting (try an Expert Mode system with just one rule eg PP1R=1). If you see lots of blank (zero) ratings in the past form CRTG column then you know this hasn’t worked.
New Ratings and avBase figures in Price Predictor
Bet Selector Professional 2.0 now has three sets of ratings and rated prices which means there are 3 lots of main, better and plus ratings giving a total of 9 ratings. If you go into the Price Predictor part of the program you will see a button towards the top right that says “Original Ratings”. If you click this button it will change to “Class Ratings” and the displays in the large box will change to reflect the new class based Main, Better and Plus ratings. Click the button again and it will change to “Time Ratings” and the displays in the large box will change to reflect the new time based Main, Better and Plus ratings.
Note that the above not only applies to the default “Prices” display where you can see the three sets of Main, Better and Plus ratings but also to the “Ratings” display that has been improved for the new ratings to also include the Main, Better and Plus ratings (the original version remains as before in for backwards compatibility). Also new you can now see first up stats via the Stats display and the Top 6 and Place% displays also adjust according to which ratings you are using.
You will notice the “Class Ratings” are labelled Main AVB, Better AVB and Plus AVB. The AVB reference indicates that they are actually based on the avBase class figures for a race (rather than the par time for a race). They are not however based on the old avBase figures you are used to but on a new set of avBase figures that much better reflect the range of classes. One problem with the old figures was that lower class races like maidens, early 2yos, country Class 1 and 2s etc were rated too high (often avBase figures were in the high 40s or low 50s when they should have been in the high 30s or low to mid 40s). As a result, the new Main AVB, Better AVB and Plus AVB ratings are much better than before.
Similarly the “Time Ratings” are labelled Main PP, Better PP and Plus PP. The PP reference indicates a connection to the original Price Predictor time based ratings where a standard time formulae was used for all tracks (ie not different times for different tracks). While these might be the last set of ratings, they have been improved tremendously due to adjustments reflecting the difference between races of different class and races at different locations (eg metrop vs provincial vs country).
New Ratings and avBase figures in Extra Form
The new class ratings do not appear in the LOAD DATA TABLES part of Price Predictor but they do appear in Extra Form via the VIEW EXTRA FORM button. Now is the time to start using Extra Form if you haven’t used it before. Not only does it provide heaps of extra form info but it is the only place in the program where you can see all 9 ratings in the one report.
Please note that the “Original Ratings” which were previously based on par times are now based on the new times and are the same as the new time ratings. They have been relabelled “Saved Ratings” because they are saved in the meeting files and can be changed via edits to base and last start ratings in LOAD DATA TABLES.
Note also for past races on the far left in Extra Form you can see the past par times ratings, class rating and PP ratings under the headings TRTG, CRTG and PRTG ratings in the TRTG column will now be the same as in the PRTG column except for old meetings imported into the older version of the program).
A final note regarding Extra Form is that the Selection Poll now reflects which ratings you were viewing in the Price Predictor part of the program immediately before clicking the VIEW EXTRA FORM button.
New Ratings and avBase figures in Race Day Live
The new rated prices are also available in Race Day Live via a new “Toggle Ratings” button at the top of the Race Day Live window – it allows you to cycle from the old Main, Better and Plus ratings to the new avBase Main, Better and Plus ratings to the new PP Main, Better and Plus ratings. Upon each click you will notice the column headings change in the main display to tell you which ratings are being displayed. In addition to the rated price columns changing, the highlighted top rated horse (grey highlight bar) now reflects which rating you are viewing (viz Main, AVB Main or PP Main). Also the ratings you end up displaying will be the ones available in the right hand drop downs for generating bets.
As you toggle between the different ratings in Race Day Live, you will find these now flow through to the reports via the buttons at the bottom of the window. And in something of a breakthrough for those interested in the Place Odds report, these predictions can now be based on TAB prices, TAB fixed prices, any of the 9 rated prices, early market (AAP) prices and even prices derived from the AAP 100 point ratings! To select which odds are used just use the drop down in the top right that is normally used for betting functionality.
Updated Original Ratings
Previously the “Original Ratings” changed every 1 to 2 years when the par times used by the program were updated so it should come as no surprise that they are being updated again (the last update was mid 2018). This time however they are not being updated via an external database file but rather are being updated in line with the internal times used for the PP time based ratings. You may recall the PP time based ratings are an improvement on the original time based ratings used in Price Predictor (hence the PP label) before we used the external par times tables.
Whether you understand the history or not does not matter. What does matter is that the “Original Ratings” are now updated and improved and the confusion of having two sets of similar time based ratings has been removed. You will still notice two sets of time ratings displayed in Price Predictor and Extra Form and they will (initially) be identical. Leaving this duplication in the program may seem strange but keep in mind that you cannot change the PP predicted ratings for a horse but you can edit the “Original Ratings” via LOAD DATA TABLES (eg you can change the base rating, peak rating and any of the last 3 start ratings). For this reason the “Original Ratings” are now labelled “Saved Ratings” in Price Predictor.
NOTE: While the “Saved Ratings” are updated and improved, the updates to the past run ratings (for Saved Ratings) only go forward in time as they are implemented when form is downloaded. If you want to force all you past “Saved Ratings” to be updated then you need to run an Expert Mode system test over the meetings you want updated with the first line of the system being” 0.NEWPEAK,NEWBASE
As a result of the above changes a couple other things have also changed.
First the old AVBASE figures for each race and for past races are now somewhat redundant and are no longer displayed in Price Predictor or Extra Form (but you can still use them in Expert Mode system tests as they have not completely disappeared).
Second there were still some old “Peter Bent” form patterns present in the program and these have now been removed (most were removed a while ago as was the impact of improver and winning form settings on the ratings). They were of course based on the old ratings so now the plan is to have new form pattern comments based not on ratings which can change but on the raw form. These will be purely for display purposes and won’t affect the ratings. For example you will now see comments like “failed last 3 starts”, “won or near win last 3 starts”, “unbeaten first up” etc. If you have any pet comments like this you think should be included please let me know (note they can only be based on the career to date stats and last 3 start form lines).
New Ratings and avBase figures in System Selector
The new avBase figures and new ratings are all available via Expert Mode variables as follows:
AVBPP – New avBase class figure for race
AVB1R – New AVB Main Ratings Rank
AVB2R – New AVB Better Ratings Rank
AVB3R – New AVB Plus Ratings Rank
AVB1V – New AVB Main Ratings Value
AVB2V – New AVB Better Ratings Value
AVB3V – New AVB Plus Ratings Value
AVB1P – New AVB Main Ratings Price
AVB2P – New AVB Better Ratings Price
AVB3P – New AVB Plus Ratings Price
PP1R – New PP Main Ratings Rank
PP2R – New PP Better Ratings Rank
PP3R – New PP Plus Ratings Rank
PP1V – New PP Main Ratings Value
PP2V – New PP Better Ratings Value
PP3V – New PP Plus Ratings Value
PP1P – New PP Main Ratings Price
PP2P – New PP Better Ratings Price
PP3P – New PP Plus Ratings Price
Note that all the above give you the improved values and overwrite the old values with the exception of the old race avBase which is still available via the same variable as before viz AVBASE (note AVBASE and AVBPP are now the same going forward since we are now using new times for the Original/Saved ratings).
Note also you can now display your choice of new rated price on the selection list and also export your choice of new rated prices to the bscsv.txt file that is created each time you run a system test (it can be used to export rated prices to other platforms like Dynamic race Odds or Racemate Pro). To change from the default rated odds to new odds just requires the use of a MyCalc – in fact you can put anything in a MyCalc and have it displayed and saved in the export file but as far as the new rated prices go just set your MyCalc to one of the “Price” variables from the above list (viz AVB1P, AVB2P, AVB3P, PP1P, PP2P OR PP3P).
Note you can use the CALCCODE as in the following example to quickly set a calc without having to refer to a saved MyCalc. The following example sets the calc and therefore display and exported prices to avBase main rated prices:
0.CALCCODE=AVB1P
Finally whilst on the topic of System Selector, if you use a MyCalc with one of the AVBxx or PPxx variables then not only will the relevant data be displayed in system selection lists but the relevant ratings are now available via the following variables for Expert Mode system use:
RPTOP - Price of Race Top Rated
RP2TOP - Price of Race 2nd Top Rated
RP3TOP - Price of Race 3rd Top Rated
BR2TOP - Better Ratings Pts of 2nd Top
BR3TOP - Better Ratings Pts of 3rd Top
BSRANK - Base Rating Rank
PKRANK - Peak Rating Rank
LSRANK - Last Start Rating Rank
For example if you use a MyCalc set to AVB1P then the rated price for the Main AVB ratings will appear on selection lists and the relevant Main AVB rated prices and ratings will be available via the variables listed above.
Note I have turned off the code to generate the new class (AVB) and time (PP) ratings to speed up system tests in normal mode. However in the event that you want to use AVB and/or PP variables in normal mode MyCalcs you can do so provided the first 2 or 3 letters of the calc are PP or AVB. This switches their calculation back on and in Expert Mode (as before) sets the default rating for variables like base rating rank, peak rating rank etc. An alternative option is to start your calc name with PP$ or AVB$ (so you don’t have to change the calc itself but may need to change the name in other system that use the calc).
As mentioned above the new avBase figures and new ratings are all available via Expert Mode variables. This means you must create an Expert Mode system to use them. This is not as hard as the name suggests as Expert Mode systems are simply text based rules that you can cut and paste from anywhere you like. Following is a system to pick the top AVB Main rated horse at metrops:
1.LOCATION$"SMBAW"
AVB1R=1
As you can see above there are just two rules, the first line for selection metrops and the second line for selecting the top AVB Main ranked horse.
TIP: You do not need to understand the above Expert Mode code. To get it into Bet Selector just copy it and paste it into the Expert Mode editor in System Selector (which you get to by clicking the Expert Mode check box and then the “Add Blank System” button). Make sure you give the system a name, eg AVB MAIN METROP, when saving it.
If you want to consider all Australian locations just change SMBAW in the above system to SMBAWX. You can also add N for New Zealand, H for Hong Kong and G for Singapore.
If you want to test for the top PP Main rated then use PP1R=1 in the second line.
Please note that since the new ratings refer to the new avBase figures, you will need to run a system test over all meetings going back at least a number of months (and ideally a few years) to force the creation of these new avBase figures. If you look in Extra Form at past form and see zero CRTG figures then you will know the new figures have not yet been created for these races.
Finally please note you can run the new ratings in System Selector’s normal mode by referring to a MyCalc set to the rating value you want to use, eg AVB1V for the new Main Class ratings or PP1V for the new Main Time ratings. Just remember to set the Calc min and max boxes both to 1 to get the top rated horse.
When you update to Bet Selector Pro 2.0 you will get the latest version and it has something new I wasn’t planning to release quite yet but I have included it anyway! The new feature is in System Analyser where you can now apply a filter when analysing. More details follow below but keep in mind it is still in the test stages – it might be possible to make it more user friendly down the track but it is very powerful and worth a look.
Say you analyse a system (like the Best Bets last Saturday) and see that Perth produced no winners. Now if you wanted to analyse the results without Perth then normally you would have to adjust the system rules, re-run the test and then re-analyse the results. But now you can filter the selections in System Analyser without having to re-run the system!
What you do is add “filter code” into the new text box on the System Analyser dialogue and then tick “Use Filter” to enact it. The code uses the CSV names not the Expert Mode names so for LOCATION you must use the name C and you must then put an @ symbol in front of the name like this:
@C<>”W”
The above will redo the analysis ignoring Perth (basically it reads ‘location not equal to Perth’). Note when you go into System Analyser you can see all the CSV column names (CSV ID) on the left in the long list box of criteria descriptions.
Because all columns in the CSV file are treated as characters in System Analyser you can’t use numbers. This is something I might be able to improve upon down the track but for the time being there is a way around this. For example to analyse PP1R=1 you can use the following:
@PP1R=”1”
And if you want to apply both the above filters at the same time you can do so like this:
@C<>”W”.AND. @PP1R=”1”
Note that your filter is remembered for the next analysis but you still have to tick ”Use Filter” to enact it.
Also new are the following variables for use in Expert Mode:
NEWBASE – used in the zero line to force rating updates in old meetings
TABRACE – used to pick TAB races and exclude non-TAB races
WAPR – weight adjusted peak rating rank
BTTIME - Last Trial Time
BTRTG - Last Trial Time Rating
STATE – The State abbreviation for the meeting (eg NSW, VIC etc)
UNIVAL - The AAP 100 point rating adjusted for track condition
Example Systems using New Ratings
As mentioned above the new avBase figures and new ratings are all available via Expert Mode variables. This means you must create an Expert Mode system to use them. This is not as hard as the name suggests as Expert Mode systems are simply text based rules that you can cut and paste from anywhere you like. Following is a system to pick the top AVB Main rated horse at metrops:
1.LOCATION$"SMBAW"
AVB1R=1
As you can see above there are just two rules, the first line for selection metrops and the second line for selecting the top AVB Main ranked horse.
TIP: You do not need to understand the above Expert Mode code. To get it into Bet Selector just copy it and paste it into the Expert Mode editor in System Selector (which you get to by clicking the Expert Mode check box and then the “Add Blank System” button). Make sure you give the system a name, eg AVB MAIN METROP, when saving it.
If you want to consider all Australian locations just change SMBAW in the above system to SMBAWX. You can also add N for New Zealand, H for Hong Kong and G for Singapore.
If you want to test for the top PP Main rated then use PP1R=1 in the second line.
Please note that since the new ratings refer to the new avBase figures, you will need to run a system test over all meetings going back at least a number of months (and ideally a few years) to force the creation of these new avBase figures. If you look in Extra Form at past form and see zero CRTG figures then you will know the new figures have not yet been created for these races.
Finally please note you can run the new ratings in System Selector’s normal mode by referring to a MyCalc set to the rating value you want to use, eg AVB1V for the new Main Class ratings or PP1V for the new Main Time ratings. Just remember to set the Calc min and max boxes both to 1 to get the top rated horse.
New feature in System Analyser
When you update to Bet Selector Pro 2.0 you will get the latest version and it has something new I wasn’t planning to release quite yet but I have included it anyway! The new feature is in System Analyser where you can now apply a filter when analysing. More details follow below but keep in mind it is still in the test stages – it might be possible to make it more user friendly down the track but it is very powerful and worth a look.
Say you analyse a system (like the Best Bets last Saturday) and see that Perth produced no winners. Now if you wanted to analyse the results without Perth then normally you would have to adjust the system rules, re-run the test and then re-analyse the results. But now you can filter the selections in System Analyser without having to re-run the system!
What you do is add “filter code” into the new text box on the System Analyser dialogue and then tick “Use Filter” to enact it. The code uses the CSV names not the Expert Mode names so for LOCATION you must use the name C and you must then put an @ symbol in front of the name like this:
@C<>”W”
The above will redo the analysis ignoring Perth (basically it reads ‘location not equal to Perth’). Note when you go into System Analyser you can see all the CSV column names (CSV ID) on the left in the long list box of criteria descriptions.
Because all columns in the CSV file are treated as characters in System Analyser you can’t use numbers. This is something I might be able to improve upon down the track but for the time being there is a way around this. For example to analyse PP1R=1 you can use the following:
@PP1R=”1”
And if you want to apply both the above filters at the same time you can do so like this:
@C<>”W”.AND. @PP1R=”1”
Note that your filter is remembered for the next analysis but you still have to tick ”Use Filter” to enact it.
More new variables in Expert Mode
Also new are the following variables for use in Expert Mode:
NEWBASE – used in the zero line to force rating updates in old meetings
TABRACE – used to pick TAB races and exclude non-TAB races
WAPR – weight adjusted peak rating rank
BTTIME - Last Trial Time
BTRTG - Last Trial Time Rating
STATE – The State abbreviation for the meeting (eg NSW, VIC etc)
UNIVAL - The AAP 100 point rating adjusted for track condition
NUMUNR - The number of unraced horses in a race
As alluded to earlier the “Saved Ratings” are updated and improved but updates to the past run ratings for them only go forward in time as they are implemented when form is downloaded. If you want to force all you past “Saved Ratings” to be updated then you need to run an Expert Mode system test over the meetings you want updated with the first line of the system being” 0.NEWPEAK,NEWBASE
The TABRACE variable allows you to pick only those races identified as TAB races from the program’s TAB data. For it to work you must have already run Race Day Live over the day or days in question (or have TAB results from the monthly result files). This new variable is ignored for future days as the full TAB info isn’t usually available until race day morning. The main use of this new variable is to avoid non-TAB meetings appearing in your selection lists on race day (remember my recommendation is that you not delete these meetings as they are needed for calculation of AVB ratings for horse moving from non-TAB to TAB meetings). The way to use the TABRACE variable in a rule is as follows:
2. TABRACE=.T.
The other new variable WAPR is a ranking variable from 1 to 24 that ranks horses according to their peak distance rating but it does so by first adjusting each horses peak distance rating by the weight it is carrying. I have found that this ranking is best used as a refining rule rather than a main rule namely because not all top WAPR horses are in form but when looking at in form horses or horses in the top rated positions it often helps to confine selections to say the top 4 WAPR as the following example rule does:
Within(WAPR,1,4)
To test one state, eg QLD use this:
1.STATE="QLD"
To test multiple states, eg QLD and NSW use this:
1.STATE$"QLD,NSW"
To test country QLD use this:
1.LOCATION$”X”
1.STATE="QLD"
Note Canberra is considered NSW and codes will appear for overseas tracks like NZ, HK and SG (Singapore) although these are just to make it look nice as we can already use LOCATION to pick these overseas venues in system tests (viz N, H and G). Note also you can view a list of all meeting names with state codes via the “List Track Codes” button on the Edit Rules screens (if you see any marked as ??? please let me know what they are).
Note: UNIVAL is an old variable that used to be the same as the AAP 100 point dry rating (viz RTGD). Now it reflects RTGD for dry tracks and RTGW for wet tracks (soft and heavy).
As alluded to earlier the “Saved Ratings” are updated and improved but updates to the past run ratings for them only go forward in time as they are implemented when form is downloaded. If you want to force all you past “Saved Ratings” to be updated then you need to run an Expert Mode system test over the meetings you want updated with the first line of the system being” 0.NEWPEAK,NEWBASE
The TABRACE variable allows you to pick only those races identified as TAB races from the program’s TAB data. For it to work you must have already run Race Day Live over the day or days in question (or have TAB results from the monthly result files). This new variable is ignored for future days as the full TAB info isn’t usually available until race day morning. The main use of this new variable is to avoid non-TAB meetings appearing in your selection lists on race day (remember my recommendation is that you not delete these meetings as they are needed for calculation of AVB ratings for horse moving from non-TAB to TAB meetings). The way to use the TABRACE variable in a rule is as follows:
2. TABRACE=.T.
The other new variable WAPR is a ranking variable from 1 to 24 that ranks horses according to their peak distance rating but it does so by first adjusting each horses peak distance rating by the weight it is carrying. I have found that this ranking is best used as a refining rule rather than a main rule namely because not all top WAPR horses are in form but when looking at in form horses or horses in the top rated positions it often helps to confine selections to say the top 4 WAPR as the following example rule does:
Within(WAPR,1,4)
To test one state, eg QLD use this:
1.STATE="QLD"
To test multiple states, eg QLD and NSW use this:
1.STATE$"QLD,NSW"
To test country QLD use this:
1.LOCATION$”X”
1.STATE="QLD"
Note Canberra is considered NSW and codes will appear for overseas tracks like NZ, HK and SG (Singapore) although these are just to make it look nice as we can already use LOCATION to pick these overseas venues in system tests (viz N, H and G). Note also you can view a list of all meeting names with state codes via the “List Track Codes” button on the Edit Rules screens (if you see any marked as ??? please let me know what they are).
Note: UNIVAL is an old variable that used to be the same as the AAP 100 point dry rating (viz RTGD). Now it reflects RTGD for dry tracks and RTGW for wet tracks (soft and heavy).
Now that we have automated jockey ratings in form downlaods (as of July 2020) there are also new variables in Expert Mode to help with testing jockeys. They are:
JRANGE – kgs of horse jockey ratings as compared to jockey rating of top jockey in race
TOPJRT – top jockey rating in race (eg lowest number)
You will mainly use JRANGE. For example the following rule picks the top jockey:
JRANGE=0
The following rule picks jockeys with 1 kg of the top jockey:
JRANGE<=1
TOPJRT is used internally by the program to calculate JRANGE but you can also use it. For example the following rule picks all jockeys rated up to two times the rating of the top jockey:
H:JRT<=2*TOPJRT
Note you can still test for absolute jockey ratings. For example the following picks only horses with jockeys rated under 2
H:JRT<2
Note: I use the same code you have access to in the Jockey Analyser part of System Analyser to work out the jockey ratings and I do so based on the past 12 months and plan to update them around the first or second of every month. They are of course based on strike rates and importantly adjusted for race class and since all this is now done for you there is no need for you to create your own (although you may still wish to use the Analyser feature to look at stats and analyse trainers).
Finally some more variables added mid 2020:
AVB1P1 - Rated Price of Top AVB1 Horse
AVB1P2 - Rated Price of 2nd AVB1 Horse
AVB1P3 - Rated Price of 3rd AVB1 Horse
PP1P1 - Rated Price of Top PP1 Horse
PP1P2 - Rated Price of 2nd PP1 Horse
PP1P3 - Rated Price of 3rd PP1 Horse
MAXAVB1V - Top AVB1 Rated Value
MAXAVB3V - Top AVB3 Rated Value
MAXPP1V - Top PP1 Rated Value
MAXPP3V - Top PP3 Rated Value
The first six variables above will help you pick gaps between rated prices of the top 3 rated. The final four variables above will help you determine kilogram margins in ratings from the top rated horse (note you need to use them in conjunction with rated values for each horse like AVB1V, AVB3V, PP1V and PP3V).
Note also there are new variable names for the Ladbrokes fixed prices viz WN1, WN2 for the first and most recently collected fixed win prices and PL1 and PL2 for the first and most recently collected fixed place prices. Ranking variables for these are also available, viz WN1R, WN2R, PL1R and PL2R. Having said that you do not need to write these into your old systems and calcs as the old Sportsbet and Tattsbet variables will still work going forward (they will pick up the new data if available otherwise they will pick up the old data). Note however you can no longer use both Sportsbet and Tattsbet variables together in the same system.
